The Next Console Generation? Don't Hold Your Beath

Throughout the history of video games and video game consoles, one rule has held steadfast--every 5 or so years, the industry refreshes with what's referred to as a new "generation" of consoles, where each of the major console manufacturers trumpets out new, more powerful devices while slowly phasing out the old ones. 2011 marks the fifth year since the 2006 launch of the Nintendo Wii and PlayStation 3--and the sixth year since the Xbox 360's launch in 2005--yet not only have we yet to hear of any new machines, it does not appear likely that new systems will be entering the market until 2015. The reality is that nobody involved in the industry--from the manufacturers to the developers to the publishers to even the consumers--even want a new console generation anytime soon. And for good reason.

PS2: The First 10-year Console (and counting)

When Sony first launched the PlayStation 3, the Japanese tech giant defended the system's initially astronomical price tag by claiming that the PS3 was designed for a ten-year life cycle. While there were plenty of critics doubting Sony's lofty ambitions, in hindsight the goal was not so unrealistic given the ongoing success of the PlayStation 2. By the time the PS2 reached its 10th anniversary in 2010, sales had declined significantly from its heydey, but it was far from dead in the water (games continue to be published for the system to this day). In other words, a system planned to have a 10-year life cycle surely could achieve that goal with little trouble given the PS2's already-established lasting power (then again, the PS2 is the most successful console ever made).

However, the PS2 achieved this feat 4-5 years after the start of the current console generation, so it's not like it can really be regarded as the catalyst for the elongation of the life cycle. Instead, we must answer a fundamental question: why would Sony, Microsoft, or (to a lesser extent) Nintendo even want to release a new console right now? The PS3 and Xbox 360 are still growing and have yet to hit critical mass. Further, the cost of actually releasing a new console is tremendous, and the manufacturers often launch new consoles at a loss and make up the difference over time in game licensing fees, accessory sales, and (down the road) cheaper and/or more efficient components. There's no reason for these companies to go back into the red when the current generation is still in its prime and still growing. The economic turmoil that has tightened up budgets around the world--and that played a role in slowing growth in the generation's early years--has only reaffirmed this position.

The PS3 Slim makes the unit cheaper for Sony to
manufacture.

(Note: the Nintendo Wii may be an exemption to this logic and will be excluded for the rest of the article. The Wii experienced its first sales decline in 2010 and--while still strong and still the overall market leader--there is no doubt that the system will reach its demise first of the three, especially considering that it was a far weaker console to begin with. However, still don't expect a successor until at least next year; the Wii still retails for $200, meaning there's plenty of room for sales-invigorating price drops).

To further strengthen the console manufacturers' position, the developers and publishers are more than happy to keep the current consoles around for as long as possible. The installed bases (number of people who own the current consoles) are still growing. A new set of consoles would mean higher development costs and a need for developers to learn how to develop for entirely new computer architectures when they are only just now tapping the full potential of the PS3 and 360. The publishers would also not want to combine these higher costs with installed bases that would inherently be only a fraction of what's available right now, which would severely limit the sales potential of any next-generation game, no matter how good. The increasing installed bases of the current consoles also decreases the risk of developing middle-ranged niche titles that can sell to just a small segment of the market rather than needing to achieve AAA blockbuster success.

Because of Xbox Live's heavy integration to the 360 dashboard,
Microsoft was able to completely overhaul the dash to
accommodate changing times.

Any rational consumer doesn't want a new console either. With the developers finally getting a firm grasp on development for this generation, gamers are able to play increasingly higher-quality games. The aforementioned benefits of growing installed bases also means that developers and publishers will be willing to take more risks, which opens up the door to new, more radical gameplay ideas. Consumers also get the advantage of sequels and entire trilogies that can actually build off previous titles in the same generation; it would be almost impossible for BioWare's Mass Effect trilogy to maintain the sense of continuity from game-to-game if the generation were cut short as currently these games import previous games' save data directly off the hard drive (of course, a cloud-based memory solution like what Sony's launching with PlayStation Plus could alleviate this hurdle). Perhaps most importantly, these consoles still cost about $300, or the traditional launching price of a new console (though that has already been thrown out the window). Should sales start declining like what the Wii's beginning to see, there's plenty of room for price drops, which trigger a massive increase in sales. With the abundance of quality games still being released for the current consoles, the last thing a consumer wants to do is shell out hundreds of dollars to start over again.

Kinect and the Xbox 360 S: a recipe for longevity.

There are several other factors in this generation's elongation. For one, the primary driving force in the launch of previous generations was technological advancements that allowed for a significant increase in pure graphical power. Let's face it: no matter how much more realistic future consoles may get, any improvements would only be incremental to the strikingly realistic visuals already achieved by today's consoles. Another game-changer is the current consoles' integration with online connectivity. The PS3 and Xbox 360 as they exist today are far more advanced than the machines that launched, even with with the slimmer redesigns aside. Having the Internet so thoroughly integrated into the experience means that the consoles are able to evolve as time goes on--something that previously necessitated an entirely new hardware product. Already we've seen things like Netflix, Hulu, ESPN, MLB.tv, NHL GameCenter, Last.fm, Facebook, Twitter, Zune, IPTV, and a whole bunch of other applications get added to the consoles' stable of features.

Finally, 2010 saw the launch of major peripherals for both the PS3 and 360 that provide a new method of interaction that could easily be associated with a new console, but instead are simply additions to the current hardware. Sony and Microsoft certainly hope that the PlayStation Move and Kinect Sensor for Xbox 360 can carry their respective hardware for the equivalent of a new generation, but as we've been over this whole time, even if they flop (which they aren't), these consoles are plenty capable of continuing growth on their own.

God of War: Ghost of Sparta announced for PSP

A teaser countdown site called Spartans Stand Tall has finally revealed what has been rumored since back in February of last year: new God of War game is coming to the PlayStation Portable from the same studio that brought us the superb Chains of Olympus, Ready At Dawn Studios. Of course, this all comes after Ready At Dawn famously and publicly gave up PSP development when they mailed all their dev kits back to Sony...guess they had a change of heart.

As this is probably a lead up to a full-blown reveal at E3 in June, details were somewhat slim. What we do know (via Joystiq) is that God of War: Ghost of Sparta will take place between God of War and God of War II and will have a longer campaign, more boss battles, and more magic and weapons when compared to the first PSP outing. In addition, Sony has promised that the game will be hitting store shelves--and presumably the PlayStation Store, though that wasn't yet confirmed--in calendar year 2010. Despite the PSP's fading fanbase in North America, the combination of Ghost of Sparta and Kojima Productions' Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker may actually make 2010 a banner year for the system. E3 is getting more exciting by the day.

BestBuy selling great new PS3 Bundle

If you've been wanting to grab a a sleek PlayStation 3 but have been a bit hesitant due to its hefty price tag, Best Buy is preparing a great deal for you. Reportedly already in some stores and being shipped to chains nationwide is a new bundle package that features an 80GB PS3 for its usual $399 price tag but also includes two of the best exclusive games on the platform: Metal Gear Solid 4 and Killzone 2. Sony has seemed pretty adament in its refusal to drop the PS3 price, so this looks like one of the better deals people can grab if they are still looking to grab that glossy Blu-ray player.

[Image courtesy of Joystiq]

E3 2009: Sony Press Conference

Sony rounded out the Big Three E3 Press Conferences and delivered lots of excited news for PlayStation gamers despite rampant leaks leading up to E3. All three companies had a very strong showing, so it seems that gamers of all platforms will have a lot to look forward to. Keep reading to find out all the goodies from Sony's briefing...

Sony Shows Off Motion Wands

That's right, all three companies are throwing their cards at this new-fangled super waggle. Nintendo started it all with the Wiimote, and now they are enhancing their game with MotionPlus. Microsoft debuted their new Natal technology at their own press briefing one day before the Sony conference. Sony of course had their own brand of motion control in SIXAXIS... which pretty much crashed and burned. So how do they respond? Their new MotionPlus-esque wands. The only problem is that they had to follow hot on the heels of the incredibly revolutionary Natal demo, which heavily diluted this new tech and rendered it kind of moot since MotionPlus will be doing the exact same stuff in a couple weeks. The wands (my term, by the way, not the official name) are scheduled to hit the market in Spring 2010 though, most likely ahead of Natal.

Big Game Reveals

God of War 3, the Rockstar-exclusive Agent, Team ICO's The Last Guardian, Gran Turismo 5 (now featuring NASCAR and World Rally), the first appearance in 4 years of Gran Turismo Mobile, the 256-player MAG, the LittleBIGPlanet-esque Mod Nation Racers, Resident Evil Portable for PSP, Final Fantasy VII PSOne classic on PSN as we speak, Kojima-directed PSP sequel to MGS3 in Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker, and a bombshell in the "exclusive" Final Fantasy XIV Online MMO (Square Enix later said a 360 port is being considered). There is a hell of a lot here.

PSP Go finally official

Despite rampant leaks finally culminating in a leaked episode of the Sony-produced Qore that fully featured the new device, Sony finally officially announced the next iteration of the PSP. At least they had a sense of humor about it, with Jack Tretton calling it "the world kept secret of E3" when he introduced it. Pretty much everything previously-reported over the weekend is true: new sliding screen, 16GB solid state memory, launching in fall for $249.99. Wait, is that the price of a Wii? And $50 more than the Xbox 360 Arcade? And $100 more than the Nintendo DSi? Hmm.... Also, it will co-exist on store shelves with the current PSP-3000 and feature an extensive digital store of catalog titles. Sony is also working on a way for people who want to upgrade to swap their UMD games for digital copies... but no details on that quite yet.

Notable No-Shows

That rumored slim PS3? Absent. It's just too early for that. Also, where was Metal Gear Solid Rising? This was later confirmed to be cross-platform after all, but its notable absence at Sony's conference may signal a shift in platform focus. Other than that, not much was left out... though notably, the original PSOne Metal Gear Solid will be released on PlayStation Network June 18.

New "PSP Go" Leaked Before Sony E3 Conference

Over the weekend, one of the biggest news from E3 was leaked before the show even started: the heavily-rumored PSP Go. The details were spilled via a leaked June episode of Sony's pay-to-see preview show Qore. The image above is a photo of the actual device that will go on sale this fall.

As you can see, the biggest difference is that the screen now slides up to reveal the buttons underneath, similar to a slide cell phone. The game also lacks a UMD drive and therefore the ability to read any physical media. Instead, all games will be downloaded digitally straight to the device and be stored on either the 16GB of internal flash memory or on a memory stick, for which the device has a slot. The system supports both Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, suggesting that games may also be purchased through a PS3 and transferred. In addition, the Bluetooth allows easy connectivity to the PS3, cell phones, and Bluetooth headsets. The PSP PlayStation Store will also be expanded to include video purchases and rentals.

Notably, the PSP Go is NOT a replacement for the current PSP-3000, and both models will share shelf space as alternatives for each other (at least for now; I presume that if PSP Go does indeed take off, the 3000 will be aptly phased out). The Qore video also discussed a new PSP Metal Gear, confirmation of Gran Turismo Mobile, and re-affirming PSP versions of both Jak and Daxter as well as LittleBIGPlanet. Early rumors about the screen also being an iPhone-like touch screen prove to be off the mark, however, as there is so mention of said functionality. Expect the new device to be spotlighted on Tuesday at Sony's E3 press conference, likely along with a strong lineup of PSP titles.

New PSP heavily rumored & detailed, confirmed by 1up's "sources"

[Read the original 1up News report here]

1up is reporting that they have firm confirmation from "sources" detailing the oft-rumored new PSP model. Apparently the new model--which will bear a nominal moniker (likely PSP Go!) rather than a numerical one such as PSP2 or PSP-4000--will feature a sliding screen that contains buttons, the d-pad, and analog nub underneath. The new model will also be ditching the battery-sucking UMD drive in favor of either 8GB or 16GB on-board flash memory, and over 100 previously-released PSP title will reportedly be available on PlayStation Network at the time of the launch of the new device (this Fall). 

Other features that have yet to be confirmed, but are still widely speculated upon, include an iPhone-esque touch screen to be used for navigation when the unit is "closed" and a built-in camera. 1up also confirmed that a second analog nub is not in the cards for the new model since Sony wants to avoid splintering its current install base. Given this, it is evident that this is not a clear-cut PSP2, but more wisely a radical iterative redesign that is akin to Nintendo's DSi. 

This move represents a daring new direction for Sony, and, combined with an increased push for unique quality titles in 2009, seems to represent a new surge of support by the company and possibly a resurgence of the stagnant platform as a whole.

A pretty good artist's rendition of what the new model may look like can be found at the previously cited 1up article.