The Next Console Generation? Don't Hold Your Beath

Throughout the history of video games and video game consoles, one rule has held steadfast--every 5 or so years, the industry refreshes with what's referred to as a new "generation" of consoles, where each of the major console manufacturers trumpets out new, more powerful devices while slowly phasing out the old ones. 2011 marks the fifth year since the 2006 launch of the Nintendo Wii and PlayStation 3--and the sixth year since the Xbox 360's launch in 2005--yet not only have we yet to hear of any new machines, it does not appear likely that new systems will be entering the market until 2015. The reality is that nobody involved in the industry--from the manufacturers to the developers to the publishers to even the consumers--even want a new console generation anytime soon. And for good reason.

PS2: The First 10-year Console (and counting)

When Sony first launched the PlayStation 3, the Japanese tech giant defended the system's initially astronomical price tag by claiming that the PS3 was designed for a ten-year life cycle. While there were plenty of critics doubting Sony's lofty ambitions, in hindsight the goal was not so unrealistic given the ongoing success of the PlayStation 2. By the time the PS2 reached its 10th anniversary in 2010, sales had declined significantly from its heydey, but it was far from dead in the water (games continue to be published for the system to this day). In other words, a system planned to have a 10-year life cycle surely could achieve that goal with little trouble given the PS2's already-established lasting power (then again, the PS2 is the most successful console ever made).

However, the PS2 achieved this feat 4-5 years after the start of the current console generation, so it's not like it can really be regarded as the catalyst for the elongation of the life cycle. Instead, we must answer a fundamental question: why would Sony, Microsoft, or (to a lesser extent) Nintendo even want to release a new console right now? The PS3 and Xbox 360 are still growing and have yet to hit critical mass. Further, the cost of actually releasing a new console is tremendous, and the manufacturers often launch new consoles at a loss and make up the difference over time in game licensing fees, accessory sales, and (down the road) cheaper and/or more efficient components. There's no reason for these companies to go back into the red when the current generation is still in its prime and still growing. The economic turmoil that has tightened up budgets around the world--and that played a role in slowing growth in the generation's early years--has only reaffirmed this position.

The PS3 Slim makes the unit cheaper for Sony to
manufacture.

(Note: the Nintendo Wii may be an exemption to this logic and will be excluded for the rest of the article. The Wii experienced its first sales decline in 2010 and--while still strong and still the overall market leader--there is no doubt that the system will reach its demise first of the three, especially considering that it was a far weaker console to begin with. However, still don't expect a successor until at least next year; the Wii still retails for $200, meaning there's plenty of room for sales-invigorating price drops).

To further strengthen the console manufacturers' position, the developers and publishers are more than happy to keep the current consoles around for as long as possible. The installed bases (number of people who own the current consoles) are still growing. A new set of consoles would mean higher development costs and a need for developers to learn how to develop for entirely new computer architectures when they are only just now tapping the full potential of the PS3 and 360. The publishers would also not want to combine these higher costs with installed bases that would inherently be only a fraction of what's available right now, which would severely limit the sales potential of any next-generation game, no matter how good. The increasing installed bases of the current consoles also decreases the risk of developing middle-ranged niche titles that can sell to just a small segment of the market rather than needing to achieve AAA blockbuster success.

Because of Xbox Live's heavy integration to the 360 dashboard,
Microsoft was able to completely overhaul the dash to
accommodate changing times.

Any rational consumer doesn't want a new console either. With the developers finally getting a firm grasp on development for this generation, gamers are able to play increasingly higher-quality games. The aforementioned benefits of growing installed bases also means that developers and publishers will be willing to take more risks, which opens up the door to new, more radical gameplay ideas. Consumers also get the advantage of sequels and entire trilogies that can actually build off previous titles in the same generation; it would be almost impossible for BioWare's Mass Effect trilogy to maintain the sense of continuity from game-to-game if the generation were cut short as currently these games import previous games' save data directly off the hard drive (of course, a cloud-based memory solution like what Sony's launching with PlayStation Plus could alleviate this hurdle). Perhaps most importantly, these consoles still cost about $300, or the traditional launching price of a new console (though that has already been thrown out the window). Should sales start declining like what the Wii's beginning to see, there's plenty of room for price drops, which trigger a massive increase in sales. With the abundance of quality games still being released for the current consoles, the last thing a consumer wants to do is shell out hundreds of dollars to start over again.

Kinect and the Xbox 360 S: a recipe for longevity.

There are several other factors in this generation's elongation. For one, the primary driving force in the launch of previous generations was technological advancements that allowed for a significant increase in pure graphical power. Let's face it: no matter how much more realistic future consoles may get, any improvements would only be incremental to the strikingly realistic visuals already achieved by today's consoles. Another game-changer is the current consoles' integration with online connectivity. The PS3 and Xbox 360 as they exist today are far more advanced than the machines that launched, even with with the slimmer redesigns aside. Having the Internet so thoroughly integrated into the experience means that the consoles are able to evolve as time goes on--something that previously necessitated an entirely new hardware product. Already we've seen things like Netflix, Hulu, ESPN, MLB.tv, NHL GameCenter, Last.fm, Facebook, Twitter, Zune, IPTV, and a whole bunch of other applications get added to the consoles' stable of features.

Finally, 2010 saw the launch of major peripherals for both the PS3 and 360 that provide a new method of interaction that could easily be associated with a new console, but instead are simply additions to the current hardware. Sony and Microsoft certainly hope that the PlayStation Move and Kinect Sensor for Xbox 360 can carry their respective hardware for the equivalent of a new generation, but as we've been over this whole time, even if they flop (which they aren't), these consoles are plenty capable of continuing growth on their own.

E3 2009: Nintendo Press Conference

Nintendo was the second of the Big Three to hold its E3 Media Briefing (i.e. Press Conference) and the company was eager to make up for its lackluster 2008 showing. There was a time when Nintendo's conference was the most anticipated of all since they had built a pedigree of saving all--and I mean just about all--major announcements for the annual trade show. The last few years have seen the immense rise in "casual gaming" on the backs of the Wii and DS, and that focus has caused Nintendo to suffer in the eyes of the hardcore. Fear not, for Nintendo made sure that they wouldn't leave E3 2009 without a splash... or even a few. Read on...

Megaton Surpsise Game Announcements

We already knew from last year that Nintendo was at least working on new Mario and Zelda games, so we fully expected at least one, if not both, to make an appearance this year. Nintendo cut right to the chase with New Super Mario Bros. Wii, an extension of the concept behind one of the best-selling games on DS. The Wii's increased horsepower means that this new game features 4-player co-op platforming in 3D but on a 2D plane in a brand new adventure. Though compelling, this was a disappointment for most, and gamers in the audience were ready to be bored once more. Nintendo, however, was just pulling some strings, and near the end of the press conference revealed two HUGE surprises via trailers (see the roundup to watch): Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Metroid: Other M. Galaxy 2 marks the first time that Mario has appeared on the same console twice since making the jump to 3D and promises to be about 90-95% new content yet equally as long and in the same planet-based model of its predecessor. Perhaps even bigger news to some is confirmation that Yoshi will play a big role in the game as well. Metroid: Other M came from absolutely nowhere and is being co-developed by Team NINJA of Ninja Gaiden fame, and it appears to share the same sort of gameplay style albeit sci-fi'd up (and Team NINJA promises that they arn't setting out to make a hard action game like Ninja Gaiden). Furthermore, the other part of the collaboration is the team responsible for the latest 2D Metroids: Metroid Fusion and Metroid: Zero Mission.

MotionPlus is All the Rage

As expected, the Wii MotionPlus peripheral was heavily focused during the conference before it finally sees the light of day at the end of the month. The device was announced at last year's E3 and allows for 1:1 movement in the game. More of WiiSports Resort was shown and it actually seems like a decent title now. In addition, it was revealed that Red Steel 2 will be bundled with the device when its released this fall, alleviating concerns of the title having to cater to a splintered install base.

Casual Gamers Get News Too

Wii Fit Plus was announced at the conference as well and features all sorts of new exercises that are designed to be even more active and keep the user involved and moving for 20, 30, or 40 minutes (maybe even longer, or less). The Wii Vitality Sensor was also revealed, which is a device that you stick your finger in and it tracks heart rate. Not really sure what applications it could have, but it was...well, there. 

Nintendo is King of Handhelds, Too

Hot off the release of their new DSi, Nintendo brought out some new games for its handheld juggernaut. The biggest reveal was a brand-new Golden Sun DS. Also spotlighted were previously-announced games Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story, Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days, and The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks. The DSiWare store got a boost with the reveal of Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Minis Rise Again coming out next week, and the announcement of a Facebook app coming out this fall.

Notable No-Shows

Pikmin 3? Project H.AM.M.E.R.? Disaster: Day of Crisis? The rumored Kid Icarus reboot? Retro Studios' next project (which may just be Kid Icarus)? Silicon Knights' Wii project? And the godfather of videogames, Shigeru Miyamoto? Nope, all these were absent, though Miyamoto did show up at...

Post-Conference Roundtable Discussion

this. Where he promptly showed some artwork for the in-development Zelda game (no photos were allowed) and revealed that the new title "may" require MotionPlus. Its probably not going to be ready until 2011, but the thought of a MotionPlus-equipped Link is the stuff of fanboy wet dreams. Now if only we could get that MotionPlus lightsaber game made as well... come on LucasArts!

What is Wii MotionPlus?

MotionPlus is a small device that plugs into the bottom of the Wiimote to give the device significantly increased accuracy. In fact, the accuracy of movement detection is so good that it allows games that support the device to recognize 1:1 movements--that is, every slight move you make with the Wiimote, the exact same motion will be replicated on screen. Your Wii already does that you say? Well, no--the Wii as-is actually only recognizes movements, and therefore the accuracy is somewhat spotty at times and definitely not 1:1. 

The applications of this technology in the gaming sphere is extraordinarily significant. Perhaps the most exciting example is how it can allow for realistic swordplay. Red Steel was a launch-title for the Wii that was a blend of FPS and swordplay, and while not terrible, the game was criticized for being lackluster and for its bland swordplay elements. Enter MotionPlus and the game's sequel, Red Steel 2, which features a heavier emphasis on the unique swordplay thanks to the device's superior accuracy. Just imagine the possibilities of this technology... lightsaber-based game anyone?

Swords arn't the only way to apply the MotionPlus technology. Nintendo is bundling the device with the upcoming WiiSports Resort (which will be $49.99; the device by itself will be $19.99). The sequel to their pack-in hit will be based around a tropical island and feature activities such as sword duels, jet-ski racing, frisbee, and other MotionPlus-enhanced activities. Perhaps an even more intriguing pack-in will actually debut before WiiSports Resort when EA packs the device in with upcoming Wii games Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 and Grand Slam Tennis. 

Tiger Woods has already proven a great success on the Wii where the motion-based technology provides a truly unique experience to the 360/PS3 counterpart, and this year's edition will feature the enhanced motion controls via the MotionPlus as well as all-new online modes and, my personal favorite, Disc Golf (aka Frisbee Golf), Grand Slam Tennis is EA's Wii-exclusive step into the tennis arena and will again feature the enhanced accuracy as well as a real-life roster of players. Look for all these titles, and the MotionPlus device itself, this summer.