POWER RANKINGS
1) Cuba- They lost the 2006 final to Japan, but that has only seemed to further motivate this squad that plays together year round. The Cubans look like they're on a mission, and while Puerto Rico is among them as the only unbeaten teams from the first round, the Cubans have never even really looked vulnerable. That includes their come back win against the Aussies, because they had the look and drive of a champion and you knew watching it that it was only a matter of time. They also made very short work of powerhouse Mexico, a feat that the Puerto Ricans cannot even remotely claim to have a comparison to. This is the team to beat. And they have red pants.
2) Japan- Until its one-run loss to Korea in the meaningless final game of Round 1 play, Japan looked pretty much unbeatable. Mind you, they were in a bracket with China and Taiwan, but they also smacked around Korea to the tune of 14-2 when it did count. Superstars Ichiro Suzuki and Daisuke Matsusaka havn't even looked too sharp but this team is still playing at an exceptional level. The long break between rounds may be their most damaging factor, but expect this team to be ready to play. And by play, that means pure, fundamental baseball, from pitching to defense to manufacturing runs. Throw in the fact that they are still defending champions and you really have a team to watch out for.
3) United States- The Americans move into home-nation advantage from here on out, and expect them to use it. The team is solid from top to bottom, and what it lacks in pure firepower it makes up good a will to win, good team chemistry, and the best pitching staff before the Netherlands rolled around. Don't be mistaken either because the power bats are there when they need to be, and ultimately there's not too much bad you can say about this squad. The fact that Cuba and Japan are in the same Round 2 Pool doesn't hurt them either.
4) Mexico- The Mexicans have really been a Jekyll and Hyde sort of team so far; they either lose by a lot or win by a lot. If not for these incosistencies, they may just be the strongest team in the tournament. Led by the power bat of Adrian Gonzalez, it sometimes seems impossible to get these hitters out. Ultimately, inconsistency and lackluster pitching will mean the downfall of this powerful team when faced the much more well-rounded competition of Round 2.
5) Puerto Rico- This team has been most noteworthy because of the incredible resurgence of Pudge Rodriguez. He has arguably carried his team thusfar, and though the rest of the lineup has been pretty strong as well, he is consistently a highlight among them. Puerto Rico is definitely capable of winning the whole dance, and I'd say the only thing really going against them is they havn't really seen an offense that can smack the ball yet.
6) Netherlands- The Dutch are unquestionably the story of the tournament so far, beating the all-tournament favorites Republica Domincana--twice-- and barely losing to another powerhouse, Puerto Rico, in the first of their two meetings (and the only one that really mattered). Their pitching staff has been absolutely phenomenal and definitely has potential to carry them to the semi-finals in LA. Unfortunately for the Dutch, winning games also requires scoring, and their offense thusfar has been pretty lackluster and aided by plenty of luck. If they can put together a good small-ball attack an manufacture a few runs a game, then their pitching should be able to carry them on.
7) Venezuela- Venezuela is an interesting bunch because they are playing without the support of their namesake. They have also shown flashes of brilliance and have potential to make a run. However, given the company they are now in, I find that to be less likely than more so. Also, even though they avenged a drubbing against the United States, it was in the meaningless final game of the pool and the US was not at full strength.
8) Korea- Despite being the gold medal-winning country in Beijing in 2008, the Koreans are arguably the weakest link. This is a completely different tournament featuring much stronger line-ups, and I honestly don't think the Koreans have the firepower to compete as they did in 2006. Their 1-0 win over Japan for Pool A, while showcasing an impressive pitching performance, also happened in a meanigless game and they still only managed to score 1 run.
THE REST
-What the HELL happened to the Dominican Republic? Yeah, sure, the Netherlands turned out to be a pretty solid team, but there's no excuse for a team with a $83.4 million payroll to lose to a team with a $0.4 million payroll...TWICE. That being said, the onus falls completely on the Dominican's supposedly powerhouse offense--namely, where the hell were they? Despite the embarassing early exit, Republica Dominicana is still one of the better teams in the tournament and would have been ranked high in the Power Rankings. Look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in 2013, a la the USA basketball team in the Beijing Olympics.
-Tough luck for Australia, Canada, and Italy. All 3 are pretty solid clubs with a lot of positives to take out of this tournament to build on for the next one. Canada lost a heartbreaker of a game to its souther rivals in what was the best game so far not involving the Dutch. Italy knocked off said Canucks, only to get spanked by Venezuela for a second time--but still, they looked impressive against Canada and for about 3 innings against Venezuela. Australia is a whole nother story. This is a country which won gold in Sydney and had all the promise in the world to be one of the top tier producers of players. Then their professional league went down under (pun intended), and well... things never really looked up from there. That is until they 10-runned supposed powerhouse Mexico, only to give up a gut-wrenching bottom-of-the-8th homer that cost them the game against Cuba, before finally getting 15-runned by an angry Mexico...ouch.
-As for China, Chinese Taipei, South Africa, and Panama... thanks for coming out, we'll see you in 2013. None of these countries even for a moment looked like they belonged. But that's because they don't.
CRITIQUE
-The Format: The first tournament was criticized for the way Korea had to play Japan three times, so what do they do? Make it possible to play each other even more. Maybe theres no way around it with the new--and much-improved--double-elimination format (as opposed to the previous Round Robin one), but the WBC organizers definitely need to look into this. Also, the final game of each pool is competely meaningless, and it shows with the way teams came out. Simple solution here: put the winner and runner-up of each pool in different Round 2 brackets. There's absolutely no reason the Round 2 pools can't mix and match, and in fact they should. This would also help to remedy the aforementioned problem of the same teams playing each other too many times. Seriously, I have no clue how this already hasn't been fixed.
-ESPN coverage: What. The. Fuck. That is my reaction to what has transpired over the opening round. This is a preeminent international showcase tournament with ambitions to be the next World Cup in a sport that Americans actually care about and pay attention to. The 2006 edition was a resounding success even by the wildest estimates, so why isn't every single game on a widely-available channel? More importantly, why does such a sports-focused company neglect these games during primetime only to showcase meaningless college basketball games that nobody gives a damn about (North Dakota St.? REALLY?!). Even ESPN's website gives little to no coverage of these games. At least stick Baseball Tonight on the air to analyze them post-mortem. Here is a message to you, ESPN: get your act straight and realize that nobody cares about college basketball until the NCAA tournament starts, especially not for mid-major conferences. Hopefully WBC negotiates a better contract with them for 2013 or otherwise moves to a different network altogether. And no, MLB Network does not count.
-English country names on jerseys: This seemed like a bigger issue in the beginning than it eventually turned out to be, but what's with the team's jerseys displaying English names of their countries? The teams from Spanish-speaking countries get to wear their "real" names, as did "Nederland" and "Italia" (granted these are all pretty close to their English counterparts). But why can't South African players wear jerseys with their proper Afrikaans name? Why can't the Asian countries properly display their names? Not even "Nippon" for Japan? This tournament is about countries coming together from all over the world for an international showcase, and even though its being presented by an English-speaking host, I don't think it's very appropriate to subdue the patriotism of these teams by mandating English-language jerseys. Just some food for thought.
PREDICTIONS!
I don't wanna make this too long or specific because I'll only be setting myself up for embarassment, so let's keep this nice and brief and with some wiggle room, shall we?:
Pool 1 winners: Cuba and Japan
Pool 2 winners: USA and Puerto Rico (as much as I love the Netherlands' run and how they've continually proven me wrong, they seem to be lacking the offense to really contend in Round 2)
Semi-finals: Puerto Rico over Cuba, USA over Japan
Finals: USA over Puerto Rico
Alright, so maybe nationalism slides the scale on those predictions a little bit. But this young US team is solid and driven, following an amazing run by the national basketball team, and setting up the national soccer team for a good run in South Africa 2010. This isn't just wishful thinking; this is actually how I think it'll go down. U-S-A!! U-S-A!! U-S-A!!
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